NOT ALL ARE buying into the state Department of Fish and Wildlife’s doom and gloom summer and fall coho forecast.
Ward Norden, owner of Snapper Tackle Company and a former fishery biologist who lives in Quilcene, disagrees with the state’s estimate of returning coho.
Forecasts for chinook, coho, sockeye and chum were announced at a meeting in Olympia last week.
Coho is the biggest worry, with a Puget Sound forecast of 256,000 coming in about one-third the size of the 2015 run.
Subtotals for rivers and streams feeding the Strait of Juan de Fuca predict a return of just 8,351 total coho, 3,655 of which are hatchery stock.
That’s down from the 2015 estimate of 22,258 total coho, 8,845 of which were hatchery.
Warden wrote to me back on Sept. 25 and said he felt this coming summer and fall salmon season would be a good one for coho and a bad one for kings.
Despite the state’s dire estimates of coho returns running at one-third of last years totals, Norden isn’t changing his tune.
“Nope. The biological indicators did not lie,” Norden said.
“This will be a good coho year and a poor chinook year.
“The only question is the size of the coho, and we won’t know that until July.”
Norden’s methodology is based off of 37 years of experience in forecasting run sizes.
“First of all, my prognostications are based on plankton productivity offshore on the feeding grounds for the young salmon recently out of fresh water,” Norden said.
Coho smolts typically leave for the Pacific Ocean in the spring, making late spring and summer a crucial period for figuring out returns for upcoming seasons.
“The first couple months those young smolts are in salt water offshore determine returns for coho and pinks the following year [and] for chinook about three years later.”
Norden then looks at plankton productivity to gauge what these salmon will be eating as they age.
“I determine plankton productivity by watching currents and winds nowadays by satellite,” Norden said.
Having gleaned that information, he then visits with fishermen, typically commercial trollers in locations like Neah Bay, to ferret out conditions on the open ocean.
“I ask what they saw out there, such as water clarity, water color and the fish they saw,” Norden said.
“Last year was quite extraordinary. Plankton productivity was very high within 5 miles of the beach, while beyond that was the ‘blob’ where productivity was low.
The blob is a vast expanse of abnormally warm Pacific Ocean water — and a leading culprit in the lower than usual size of kings and coho last year.
“The trollers noted that within the plankton bloom they saw smolts were growing much faster than usual, indicating good conditions and lower than usual mortality,” Norden said.
“Conclusion: a larger than normal coho return this year.
“As I told all of my customers for years: we may have a lot of fish coming back, but whether we get to fish for them is a political question, not a biological one.”
In more encouraging news for future seasons, the blob, which formed during the winter of 2013-14, has dissipated in NASA satellite images taken in January.
Those images show average ocean temperatures have dropped to be more in line with data collected from 2003-2012. They can be viewed online at tinyurl.com/PDN-NASAImages.
This has led many scientists to declare the blob dead — an encouraging sign for future returns.
“The blob may be gone, but El Niño is still there on the equator and still very powerful,” Norden said.
“This is the longest lasting equatorial El Niño I have ever seen.
“This is good news for California and all the Southwest as their rains may continue.”
Anglers host meeting
A chance to ask questions to Fish and Wildlife fisheries biologists comes Thursday, March 17, when the North Olympic Peninsula Chapter of Puget Sound Anglers host a North of Falcon meeting in Sequim.
The meeting is set for 6 p.m. at Trinity United Methodist Church, 100 S. Blake Ave.
“The interested fishing public is highly encouraged to come and let your voice be heard,” chapter secretary Sherry Anderson said.
“Biologists will be on hand to answer questions.”
Anderson added that the meeting should end by 9 p.m.
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Outdoors columnist Michael Carman appears here Thursdays and Fridays. He can be reached at 360-452-2345, ext. 57050 or at mcarman@peninsuladailynews.com.