SNOW ISN’T THE ONLY thing that’s gonna fall.
As you know, the Russian satellite Phobos Grunt is expected to fall out of orbit within the next day or so.
While it’s impossible to know exactly where it will re-enter, it’s possible to plot the orbital path to a great deal of accuracy.
Current projections from Roscosmos (the Russian space agency in charge of the probe) have the satellite de-orbiting on Sunday or perhaps as late as Monday.
The latest prediction calls for a likely de-orbit at around 1:50 p.m. PST over the south Pacific near Chile, but that’s only a guess based on orbital eccentricity.
The orbit isn’t perfectly round, but elliptical and that projection would most likely have it near perigee. Actual re-entry could take place anywhere between 51 degrees north and 51 degrees south latitude.
Should it last longer, Phobos Grunt would pass over the North Olympic Peninsula on Sunday evening on a northwest to southeast path that would take it just south of Forks, over the park and then over Tacoma as it continued southeast over the rest of the United States.
That pass would occur at about 11:35 p.m. PDT.
If by some remote chance it stays aloft until Tuesday, the orbital path would take it over the park and then over a point between Port Angeles and Sequim before continuing off to the northeast in the Mount Baker area and on to southern Canada.
That pass would take place shortly before 9 p.m. PDT. Extremely doubtful if it will last that long, though.
Those are the only two passes over the Peninsula in the next few days.
Nothing we should be worried about, but it bears paying attention to, just in case.
Keith Thorpe is the Peninsula Daily News’ chief photographer — and weather and space debris watcher. The source for the tracking info was www.n2yo.com. It is also the source of the tracking graphic with this story. Other information came from www.space.com.
