Preparations are underway for the aftermath of a massive Cascadia Subduction Zone quake in the Pacific Northwest.
“We’ve been focused on this for a few years and are developing a plan as to how to respond to this threat so we are not caught unaware,” said Lt. Col. Clayton Braun of the Washington National Guard, who is involved in developing a response plan.
Emergency management personnel have been conducting workshops and planning sessions with local, state, federal, military and tribal officials focusing on earthquake and tsunami readiness.
The workshops are leading up to a major earthquake and tsunami exercise over four days — called Cascadia Rising — planned to begin June 7, 2016.
The plan is a living document that improves with each iteration, Braun said, but if an earthquake occurs before its completion, agencies will follow the plan in place at the time.
Its latest version will be presented at 11 a.m. Friday in the Sequim Civic Center meeting room, 152 W. Cedar St.
The meeting is meant as training for emergency personnel and interested stakeholders, but the public is welcome, with a request to confirm attendance with an email to lcoleman@clallamfire3.org.
National article
Interest in a Cascadia Subduction Zone quake on a fault that stretches 620 miles from Vancouver Island to Cape Mendocino in Northern California was revived nationally by an article in The New Yorker’s July 20 issue.
The article — which can be read at http://tinyurl.com/PDN-quake — says that when — not if — the “big one” hits the Pacific Northwest, 13,000 people will die, 27,000 will be hurt, 1 million will be displaced and another 2.5 million will be left without adequate food or water after the quake, aftershocks and tsunamis created by the shift in the earth.
“The article was well-written and the data was correct, but its overall tone was a little bit alarmist,” said Braun, adding that “it could have added a few sentences” about the planning that is being done.
Experts predict that a massive quake, perhaps more than 9.0 magnitude, occurs every 300 to 500 years on the Cascadia Subduction Zone — although no one can say when the next will happen.
The last rupture of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, Braun said, was Jan. 26, 1700.
Plan in progress
The plan in progress divides the state into nine regions, with Region 2 containing Clallam, Jefferson and Kitsap counties.
According to the plan, 2,881 rescue personnel would be allocated to Region 2 out of an estimated 40,000 statewide.
“You won’t see all of these at once. It will be a constant revolving number of people,” Braun said.
The plan incorporates a military chain of command with the goal to “put military support to local incident commanders and emergency managers,” Braun said.
It projects that of the two emergency operations centers on the North Olympic Peninsula, the Port Angeles facility would be “completely destroyed,” while the Jefferson County facility in Port Hadlock would be “severely damaged and not usable.”
Region would weather quake
Each region has its unique aspects, Braun said, with Region 2 expected to not only weather the earthquake’s devastation but the tsunami that will affect coastal areas.
The plan characterizes the coastal region that includes Port Angeles, Port Townsend and Sequim as “most spread-out.”
It incorporates a tiered rescue system based on the expected air access.
There are no Tier 1 facilities on the Peninsula due to the lack of accommodation of larger aircraft. Port Angeles is rated as Tier 2 and Forks as Tier 3.
The plan establishes two 20,000-gallon fuel farms consisting of above-ground fuel bladders in Port Angeles and Quillayute Airport, and 10,000-gallon fuel farms in Neah Bay, Forks, Sequim and Port Townsend.
One priority would be to provide water filtration systems to people who live close to streams and lakes while trucking in and distributing water into the metro areas, Braun said.
The current presentation tour of the developing plan is a two-way process, Braun said, presenting the plan and incorporating input from emergency responders and the public.
Another draft will be published in the fall to be followed by a final draft in 2016 after the Cascadia Rising exercise.
Severe quake
Even with preparation, emergency management personnel in Clallam and Jefferson counties say the potential severity of a Casadia Subduction Zone quake cannot be understated.
“This will be a devastating event, and no amount of planning will alleviate its impact,” said Penelope Linterman, program manager for the Clallam County Sheriff’s Office’s emergency management unit.
Linterman said families need to plan ways to survive during the gap between when services are lost and when they are restored — a time for which the duration cannot be predicted — and said some homes could be out of power for three to six months.
“This gap needs to be filled by the individuals. The government can’t help with that,” said Bob Hamlin, program manager for the Jefferson County Department of Emergency Management.
“All the things that are part of your life will be gone for a while, and you will be on your own.”
A “big one” that levels the region would lead to most resources devoted to large population centers, Hamlin said, predicting that Clallam and Jefferson counties would get services — eventually.
“It will depend how long it takes to push services down the pipe and how badly that pipe is damaged,” Hamlin said.
“We are at the end of the pipe. They won’t forget us, but it might take longer than what we expect.”
The quake would hit without warning, Hamlin said.
“If it shakes for five minutes, you know it’s here” and should head for higher ground, he said.
The magnitude of an earthquake relates to the length of time of the ground shaking, experts say.
Specifics about preparations are listed on the Washington State Military Department Emergency Management Division website at http://tinyurl.com/PDN-waemergency.
They also are in a publication, Think-Plan-Do! — Repeat, now in its third edition, which is available from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. weekdays at 81 Elkins Road, Port Hadlock.
Increasing emergency preparedness will be the focus of the third annual Jefferson County community picnic, scheduled from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. Aug. 23 at H.J. Carroll Park, 9884 state Highway 19, Chimacum.
Free music, food and activities will be supplemented by information about specific emergency measures and resources.
A video of Braun’s May 14 presentation in Port Angeles is viewable at http://tinyurl.com/PDN-prepare.
For more Jefferson County information, go to www.jeffcoeoc.org or call 360-385-9368.
For more Clallam County information, go to www.clallam.net or call 360-417-2483.
________
Jefferson County Editor Charlie Bermant can be reached at 360-385-2335 or cbermant@peninsuladailynews.com.
