PORT TOWNSEND — Nancy Stelow, a local Realtor with Better Homes and Gardens, said when she looks into her crystal ball for the future of real estate in Jefferson County she sees a shortage in homes.
“In my opinion, the lack of home sales now will have an effect down the road and make for a shortage of housing in the area in 2015,” Stelow said to more than 50 people at the Port Townsend Chamber of Commerce’s Monday luncheon.
Noting that the region is a retirement destination, Stelow said she believes that the people who would have normally purchased homes in 2008 and 2009 but choose to continue working will still retire but not until three to five years down the road.
“That group that would have come in 2009 will still come,” Stelow said.
“You just won’t see them until 2012 or later.”
And, with a lack of demand, she is fearing that builders won’t continue to be able to work in the area.
“Our builders are hurting,” Stelow said.
“It all shows there could be a demand down the road.”
Still, the solution to the problem is unknown.
Stelow and Teresa Goldsmith, a broker with John L. Scott, gave the chamber an overview of the home sales numbers from across the state and the county as of the first three quarters of 2009.
Stelow said 484 homes had been sold in the area this year, while in years past, there were thousands.
“If you are trying to sell and not seeing a lot of activity, it’s because there just aren’t any buyers,” Stelow said.
Also, Goldsmith said, the type of homes being sold was changing.
“What you are seeing is people buying less but also buying more moderate,” Goldsmith said.
“We’re not seeing the high-end homes being sold as frequently as they used to.”
And, Stelow said, “They aren’t buying the 3,000-square-foot homes anymore.
“People have moved down into the 2,000-square-foot range.
“Also, people like the idea of green-building but when they see how much it costs they typically back off.”
This year, only three buildings priced over $1 million have been sold.
“The bubble out here was in 2004 and 2005 and it really peaked in August of 2006,” Stelow said.
“Places like Kala Point have been a constant seller for years, so what has changed now?
“People are deciding to work longer as they look at their retirement funds.”
The big picture is that the residential market is slowing as the loan process is revamped, and commercial sales have dropped as capital has become almost unobtainable for large purchases.
Stelow said she is hoping to see some changes soon as the state fixes the rules used for brokers and the federal government changes lending practices by banks, and she is waiting for an announcement from the President Barack Obama in the coming days.
“Hopefully they will be able to do something to free up the crediting process,” Stelow said.
“I’m waiting with bated breath to see what is announced.”
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Reporter Erik Hidle can be reached at 360-385-2335 or at erik.hidle@peninsuladailynews.com.