Avian influenza is advancing toward a pandemic like the slow-motion segment of a horror movie, a dreadful progress whose creeping pace may petrify its victims — or lull them into inaction.
That the H5N1 virus will arrive is almost certain. Just when and how hard it will hit is anybody’s guess.
The onset may be as mild as an ordinary flu season, killing one in 1,000 to 10,000 it strikes.
Or it could be as catastrophic as the 1918 flu pandemic that killed 600,000 Americans — 2.5 percent of its victims — and scores of millions more around the world.
Dr. Tom Locke, health officer for Clallam and Jefferson counties, said scientists are watching the bird flu virus mutate daily beneath their microscopes. So far the strain has spread among birds, and it has sickened humans who handled infected fowl.
Eventually — like its World War I-era precursor — it will mutate to a strain that’s contagious among humans.
And if people aren’t prepared, they will reap more than a deadly illness. Similar to the aftermath of a hurricane or flood, a pandemic may spawn civil disorder.
Consider these likely results of a pandemic:
* Up to 35 percent of employees could be absent on sick leave or caring for loved ones.
* Schools will be closed, and public gatherings will be banned.
* About 5.000 people may die in Washington state alone.
* Between 500,000 and 1 million people in the state could need outpatient medical care.
* As many as 24,000 people might require hospitalization.
Not enough beds
On the North Olympic Peninsula, the region’s four hospitals haven’t the beds to accommodate all the victims, Locke said, nor do they have sufficient respirators, medications or IV solutions.
Furthermore, Clallam and Jefferson counties won’t be able to ask for outside help. The outsiders will be too sick to respond and too busy coping with their own troubles.