Four years ago, it took days for news organizations to project Joe Biden as the winner of the election.
This year, a verdict may not be fast, but it should be faster. It should even be much faster in several key states, like Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Like in 2020, the vote count will still feature “blue mirages” or “red mirages,” in which one candidate builds a fleeting lead simply because mail or Election Day ballots are counted first. (Mail ballots have tended to be more Democratic, and Election Day ballots more Republican.) But this year, these mirages won’t be as extreme.
A general way to think about vote counting in U.S. elections is that they start in the Southeast and end in the West. With that in mind, here’s what we’ll know as the night goes on, region by region (all times Eastern):
The first polls will close at 6 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, and the last at 1 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday. (New York Times graphic)
Sundown: The South (mostly)
Election night will begin in the South. The polls will close in Georgia, Virginia and most of Florida by 7 p.m. Eastern time, while North Carolina’s polls close at 7:30 p.m.
The results should come quickly — quickly enough that these states could be very clear or even called by midnight, even in a competitive race. In each case, the early vote will lean Democratic, but not by as much as in the past. The Election Day vote will probably still lean Republican, but, again, by not nearly as much as four years ago.
With these states counting so quickly, we will know a lot by about 9 or 10 p.m., even if there isn’t a race call. There are three basic scenarios:
— If Kamala Harris is clearly favored (or has won) Georgia or North Carolina, she’s in the driver’s seat. A victory in one of these states doesn’t guarantee her a win nationwide, but it would be a very good sign for her chances because neither state is presumed to be her easiest path to victory. Winning one state — let alone two — would give her breathing room to lose a key Northern state, all while demonstrating her strength in the battlegrounds.
— If Donald Trump is clearly favored (or has won) in both North Carolina and Georgia, he’s in the driver’s seat. Victories in these states don’t guarantee victory, either, but they would leave Harris with just one clear path to victory: a sweep of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and a 270-268 squeaker. It wouldn’t be easy. Harris would have to run the table, and it may be too much to ask her to sweep all three if she’s not strong enough to be highly competitive in Georgia or North Carolina.
— If Harris is highly competitive in at least one of North Carolina and Georgia, the race remains a true tossup. The race will head to the Northern battlegrounds.
A few other things to keep in mind early in the night:
— Florida will report its vote extremely quickly. If Trump wins big in Florida, it won’t be at all clear that it’s indicative of what might happen elsewhere in the country. Resist the urge to extrapolate from this result. Be patient.
— The polls close in most of Texas at 8 p.m. The early vote from the big metropolitan counties will report quickly, and it should be relatively straightforward. It will quickly be evident whether Ted Cruz’s Senate seat is in jeopardy, even if it will take hours for a call if it’s close.
— Keep an eye on Virginia. If it’s close, it could be a harbinger of a good night for Trump.
— Ohio isn’t a presidential battleground anymore, but it does have a key Senate race. The polls will close at 7:30 p.m., and the early vote will lean Democratic. Be patient; it won’t take too long before counties wrap up their counts.
— Finally, I’ll be keeping an eye on New Hampshire. It’s a straightforward count, and it will be our first clue about voters in the relatively white nonevangelical North. If Harris is more or less matching Biden’s numbers (a 7-point victory statewide), it’s a sign she might also hold up in a place like Wisconsin or Michigan, even if the South is going poorly for her.
Late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning: The North
As North Carolina and Georgia wrap up their counts, all eyes will gradually drift to the Northern battlegrounds: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Without a big upset, no candidate can win without one of these three states, and none will deliver a quick verdict.
The polls in Pennsylvania will close at 8 p.m., but it will probably be the last of the three to complete its count. State law prevents Pennsylvania’s counties from opening mail ballots until Election Day, so election workers will race to count as many as they can throughout the day.
How many can they get through? There are reasons to be cautiously optimistic that they could count quickly: There are fewer mail ballots than in 2020; the count was much faster in the 2022 midterms; and a lot of counties have gained important experience, like learning which envelope-opening technology works best.
Whatever the answer, the first results in Pennsylvania will lean Democratic, as counties will first report the mail vote they were able to open during the day. Next, the Election Day vote will arrive, and Trump will probably lead in a close race — although his Election Day vote edge won’t be as big as it was in 2020. Finally, the last of the relatively Democratic mail vote will be tabulated in the hours or possibly days that follow.
Wisconsin, on the other hand, will go more or less as it did in 2020. Its counties tally the vote in one of two ways: Most tabulate the Election Day and absentee vote together, yielding a relatively representative if slow count; other counties, like Milwaukee, report the Election Day vote first and absentee ballots second.
In recent elections, this pattern has meant Republicans take the lead in the tabulated vote tally throughout election night all the way up until the Milwaukee central absentee count. When Democrats win, they take the lead sometime in the early hours of the morning, as happened with Biden in 2020.
We expect the same early pattern Tuesday. Trump will probably lead in Wisconsin for most of the night, but only narrowly. If Harris wins, she’ll do so by taking a lead late in the night or early Wednesday morning, when Milwaukee first reports its absentee votes. At that point, only heavily Democratic places will remain left to be counted.
Of the three Northern battlegrounds, Michigan has the potential to have the most improved count. Unlike in 2020 or 2022, state law now permits counties and townships to open ballots before the election. Not every jurisdiction will do so, but it should significantly speed up the tabulation of early and mail ballots. If enough jurisdictions do so, Michigan might flip its 2020 script: Harris could jump out to an early lead, while Trump waits for the Election Day vote.
That said, Michigan has always been relatively slow to count its votes.
Into the week: The West
Under the right circumstances, all of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia and North Carolina could count 90 percent or even 95 percent of their vote by morning Wednesday.
Unfortunately, that’s not going to happen in Nevada, Arizona or many other states that are still heavily reliant on mail ballots — like California, Washington and Oregon.
That’s right. There’s no reason to expect a big difference in vote-by-mail in the West. The procedures are unchanged, and they usually took days to count even before 2020.
If there’s any good news, it’s that Arizona and Nevada are probably the two least important battleground states. If you could choose two races to take a week to resolve, it would be these two.
That’s partly because Arizona seems to be the clearest of all the battlegrounds (it’s Trump’s strongest in the polling). It’s also because Nevada’s six electoral votes figure into the electoral math only under some more unlikely scenarios, like if Harris loses Pennsylvania but wins two of Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina.
Arizona counts its votes in three basic steps.
— First, the so-called “early earlys” — the mail ballots returned about 72 hours or more before the election. In 2020 and 2022, these votes skewed heavily Democratic, but they will be less skewed this time. That doesn’t make them representative — we think they’ll still lean Democratic — but if Harris leads in these votes by even a few points, that’s a bigger deal than it would have been two or four years ago.
— Second, the heavily Republican — but fairly small — Election Day vote. This will be completed overnight.
— Third, “late early” ballots — those returned closer to the election or dropped off on Election Day — and the provisional ballots. The number and partisanship of these ballots will be a bit of a mystery, and it will probably prevent a race call. Before the pandemic, these ballots skewed Democratic; after the pandemic, they’ve been more Republican-leaning. Tuesday night? As I’m writing this, our data suggests that this group of ballots could be Democratic-tilting again, but we won’t be confident in that until they begin to report those “late early” ballots the day after the election.
Nevada also counts its ballots in three basic waves. First comes the advance vote — early and absentee. Usually this has leaned Democratic, but here again it doesn’t seem quite as blue as in the past. Then, the Election Day vote, which leans Republican. Finally: late-arriving mail ballots.
California and the other Western vote-by-mail states won’t figure much into the outcome of the presidential election, but the slow count out West will nonetheless make a difference. In particular, it makes it far less likely that we’ll know the answer to two questions:
— Who will win the popular vote? If the national popular vote is close — as polls suggest — it might be hours, days or perhaps even weeks before ballots from California and other Western states give us an answer.
— Who will win the House? Unless the outcome nationwide is decisive, we may not be able to determine the winner of the House without the results of key congressional races in Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Arizona and Colorado, which could take days or weeks to resolve.
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This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
