PORT ANGELES — It’s not your imagination: It is warm for January.
This month is shaping up to be the warmest January on record on the North Olympic Peninsula and throughout Washington state.
Meteorologists attribute the unseasonably mild weather to El Nino, a periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific that shifts the storm track south to California.
“Typically, El Nino brings the Northwest warmer and drier than usual weather in the second half of winter,” Andy Haner, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Seattle. “I know this month has been significantly warmer than usual.”
The effects of El Nino usually start around the first of the year, Haner said. Three weeks into 2010, the Peninsula is already feeling its effects.
Near Forks, where the National Weather Service has been keeping data at the Quillayute airport since 1966, the average temperature for the first three weeks of January was 47.3 degrees, which is a record, if it holds true for the rest of the month.
The second highest average for the first three weeks of the month at the Quillayute weather station was 46.2 degrees, set in 1981.
“That’s a significant margin,” Haner said. “To beat out the previous warmest by that much — that’s a pretty good feat statistically.”
In Port Angeles, where weather records have been kept for just 10 years, the high-low average for the month was 43 degrees as of Thursday.
The second-warmest January during that span was in 2002, when the average temperature was 41.9 degrees.
“To say this has been a warm January — there’s no doubt about it,” Haner said.
The National Weather Service does not have a station in Jefferson County.
However, data from AccuWeather.com shows Port Townsend averaged 47.2 degrees in the first three weeks of January 2010.
The historical average for that span is 41.1 degrees.
El Nino and rain
El Ninos are generally not associated with heavy rains in Western Washington, Haner said, but that’s not to say heavy precipitation can’t happen.
Heavy rains triggered a landslide Jan. 15 that crumbled Hurricane Ridge Road over the course of several days.
The slide occurred just north of the Heart O’ the Hills campground and entrance gate to the park. Park officials hope to have the road reopened in six weeks.
“This week, we’re getting into a classic El Nino pattern,” Haner said.
While the Pacific Northwest stayed relatively dry last week, California was pummeled by powerful storms.
Changes in ocean temperatures shift storm patterns during El Nino, and not just in North America.
“The heat energy that gets released into the atmosphere is significant,” Haner said.
“It changes weather patterns all over the globe.”
Cliff Mass, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington, told The Seattle Times: “This could turn out to be the warmest January ever.”
“We are definitely going to be in the top 10, and at this pace we are on track to be the warmest January in history.”
Daffodils and other spring flowers are already popping up in Western Washington.
Seattle saw sunshine, April-like warmth and the usual threat of rain last week while the rest of the country was being hit by chilly blasts.
So far this month, the average of Seattle’s daily low and high temperatures has been about 47 degrees, nearly 7 degrees warmer than normal.
Both Washington and Oregon have had above-normal temperatures, National Weather Service meteorologist Carl Cerniglia told The Associated Press.
Spokane is usually frozen in January, but it’s been running nearly 8 degrees above average for the month, Cerniglia said.
Snowpack low
Back on the Peninsula, Haner said the snowpack at Hurricane Ridge is 80 percent of normal.
Twice a month, the Northwest Avalanche Center records the snow depth at Hurricane Ridge. As of the last reading on Jan. 15, the snowpack was 56 inches deep. The normal measurement for that date is 70 inches.
The record snowpack at Hurricane Ridge for Jan. 15 was 118 inches, set in 2007.
The record low was 10 inches set in 1981, Haner said.
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The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Reporter Rob Ollikainen can be reached at 360-417-3537 or at rob.ollikainen@peninsuladailynews.com.
