IS ANOTHER BLOB setting up shop in the northern Pacific Ocean?
Yes, according to University of Washington atmospheric sciences professor Cliff Mass.
The first Blob, a mass of warm ocean water three to seven degrees above normal, parked itself in the Pacific Ocean late in 2013 and in 2014, fueling a mild and temperate winter in 2013-14, but wreaking havoc on anadramous fish such as chinook and coho feeding in the nutrient-deprived environment on their “gap years” at sea.
Persistent high pressure and less stormy conditions allowed the first Blob to set up shop for so long, with less churn for the cooler, nutrient-rich water nearer the ocean floor to rise closer to the surface.
The Blob brought tropical fish species closer to our coast and raised levels of domoic acid on crab fisheries and clam beaches from Alaska to California.
Low numbers of juvenile spring chinook and coho started to appear in 2015, including those heading back to the Fraser River and other points in the Salish Sea.
Alaska pink salmon had the lowest return in memory in 2016 and Fraser sockeye returns were the lowest on record, but chum returns to the Fraser River were the highest in 20 years. There were high chum returns, as well, in Washington and Oregon.
As conditions were improving in 2017, Alaska saw the highest chum harvest ever, along with high pink and sockeye returns, yet there were fishery closures for chinook in our state, Oregon and in British Columbia.
And this year’s Columbia River chinook return caused king fishing to dip off Neah Bay and eventually close on the big river to the south.
Mass said a pool of warm water can be found over the north Pacific and Gulf of Alaska, with some of it more than two degress Celsius warmer than normal.
The warm water is present due to a ridge of persistent high pressure which leads to less wind, which leads to less churn, which results … in the Blob 2.0.
Skeptical view
Quilcene’s Ward Norden, a former fisheries biologist and tackle maker, always keeps a watchful eye on water conditions in the Pacific Ocean. He said not to worry about the Blob’s return … just yet.
“Not back — yet,” Norden said. “Along the coast and out over 700 miles the ocean is at or slightly below normal temps.”
Even out in the north central Pacific, the ocean surface is barely 2 degrees Farenheit above normal. “Not even close to the ‘Blob’ of four years ago which caused the near collapse of the Columbia River fall chinook run this year.”
Expect mild winter
Norden said a “very minor El Nino weather pattern has been gathering strength for the last month near the Equator which may help with drought conditions in Southern California, Arizona and southern Nevada, but Norden cautioned it was too soon to tell.
“At the moment, the satellite images of ocean temps are getting weird,” Norden said. “They are showing anomalies near the Arctic that are physically impossible. I was told several years ago by NASA scientists that readings get above 55 degrees north latitude, they become less reliable especially when ocean temps get near freezing.
“What you see in sea surface temperature anomalies should be taken with a grain of salt. Then look at the real time temps available from more reliable sources.”
We will see how it plays out, one way or the other.
Razor clam recap
Turnout was excellent, as was the weather, and the digging yielded solid razor clam harvests during the first digs of the fall season last week.
An estimated 3,100 diggers turned out for the opener last Thursday at Twin Harbors and Mocrocks and dug up an average of 14.2 clams per person — right under the 15-clam limit (diggers must keep the first 15 clams, regardless of size/condition).
By Friday, turnout was around 5,000 diggers at Twin Harbors and Copalis and on Saturday, it dipped with 2,000 at Twin Harbors and Mocrocks.
Each day saw near-limits for diggers.
The average size of clams at Copalis was 4.4 inches.
Samplers with Fish and Wildlife at Twin Harbors reported that Saturday’s clams were a little bit smaller, but a less favorable low tide likely put diggers further up on the beach.
The next proposed razor clam digs (pending toxicology tests) are tentatively scheduled for next Thursday through Sunday.
The proposed digs, low tides and open beaches:
Thursday: 7:55 p.m., -0.5 feet; Twin Harbors, Copalis
Friday, Oct. 26: 8:36 p.m. and -0.7 feet; Twin Harbors, Mocrocks
Saturday, Oct. 27:9:19 p.m. -0.7 feet; Twin Harbors, Copalis
Sunday, Oct. 28: 10:08 p.m. -0.6 feet; Twin Harbors, Mocrocks
One more week
Norden checked the water temperature at Lake Leland earlier this week (54 degrees).
“This is about perfect for the 2,000 1-pound trout planted a few days ago and the large 18-inch holdover trout from the spring plants,” Norden said.
“Anglers at the pier were doing pretty well with Power Bait just above the bottom. At that temperature we will have about a week more of good bass fishing on all of our local lakes then the recent frosty mornings will put the fish in winter mode.”
Duck hunt
A mixed report on bird hunting.
“Duck hunting on our local bays has been inconsistent so far, but there are quite a few local pintails and teal to be had when the birds are not too bedeviled by hawks and eagles,” Norden said. “Foggy mornings are ‘primo’ for hunting waterfowl this time of year.”
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Sports reporter Michael Carman can be contacted at 360-417-3525 or mcarman@peninsuladailynews.com.
